I took part in a panel discussion Friday about current events, and the subjects included the ugly rise of antisemitism around the country and particularly on college campuses. After addressing the current rise within the context of the Israel-Hamas War, one of the panelists noted the surge in hate crimes and white nationalism since Trump ran for office. Immediately, two other panelists took exception, insisting that antisemitism was a much older poison than that and that it was unfair to blame Trump. (The reaction was the same on Saturday, Nov. 4 when I first posted this commentary.)
No one would disagree with that statement about antisemitism being around long before Trump. But to dismiss Trump as a factor in the historic surge in hate crimes over the last seven years is to declare yourself a resident of the State of Denial.
I could not grab the necessary background information while we were recording the “Square Off” program with host Richard Sher.
But here’s a look back at hate crimes within the frame of Trump’s presidency.
2016
The Washington Post, citing FBI data, reports that hate crimes with racial or ethnic bias jumped the day after Trump won the 2016 election, from 10 to 27. There were more reported hate crimes on Nov. 9 than any other day in 2016, and the daily number of such incidents exceeded the level on Election Day for the next 10 days.
2018
A research paper by Social Science Research Network finds a correlation between Trump and hate crimes: “Using time series analysis, we show that Donald Trump’s election in November of 2016 was associated with a statistically significant surge in reported hate crimes across the United States, even when controlling for alternative explanations. Further … we show that counties that voted for President Trump by the widest margins in the presidential election also experienced the largest increases in reported hate crimes. We hypothesize that it was not just Trump’s inflammatory rhetoric throughout the political campaign that caused hate crimes to increase. Rather, we argue that it was Trump’s subsequent election as President of the United States that validated this rhetoric in the eyes of perpetrators and fueled the hate crime surge.”
2019
From the Associated Press: “President Donald Trump has often railed about an ‘invasion of illegals’ at the southern border, words echoed in a screed the El Paso shooting suspect apparently posted that called the attack that killed 22 people at a Walmart his response to a ‘Hispanic invasion of Texas.’ Some extremism experts believe that may not be an accident. They say historical data suggests a link between heated rhetoric from top political leaders and ensuing reports of hate crimes, only adding to the fears of those who could be targeted.
From the Brookings Institution: Trump did not do especially well with non-college-educated whites, compared to other Republicans. He did especially well with white people who express sexist views about women and who deny racism exists. Even more alarmingly, there is a clear correlation between Trump campaign events and incidents of prejudiced violence. FBI data show that since Trump’s election there has been concentrated in counties where Trump won by larger margins. It was the second-largest uptick in hate crimes in the 25 years for which data are available, second only to the spike after September 11, 2001. Though hate crimes are typically most frequent in the summer, in 2016 they peaked in the fourth quarter (October-December). This new, higher rate of hate crimes continued throughout 2017.
From CNN: Hate crime reports in America surged in 2019 to the highest level since 2008, according to new data released on Monday by the FBI. In its annual report on national hate crime statistics, the FBI found that murders classified as hate crimes more than doubled from 2018 to 2019, with 51 people killed last year in incidents motivated by hate.
2020
A nationwide review conducted by ABC News identified at least 54 criminal cases where Trump’s name was invoked in direct connection with violent acts, threats of violence or allegations of assault.
Citing an FBI report, Newsweek reports that hate crimes surged nearly 20 percent during the administration of President Donald Trump. The report also showed that hate-motivated murders, largely committed by white supremacists, spiked to their highest number in 28 years.
2023
From a paper published in Trends in Cognitive Science: “Did the presidency of Donald Trump affect Americans’ intergroup attitudes? Converging evidence from recent experimental and longitudinal studies suggests that Trump’s political rise led his supporters to increase their reported prejudice toward traditionally minoritized racial and religious groups in the USA.”
October 16, from the Associated Press: Doubling down on the hard-line immigration policies that have long animated his base, former President Donald Trump vowed to bar refugees from Gaza and immediately expand his first-term Muslim travel ban if he wins a second term following the deadly attack on Israel last week.
The most complete report on Trump’s association with bigotry and hate crimes appeared in the Journal of Criminal Justice and Law in 2021, under the title Race, Rallies, and Rhetoric: How Trump’s Political Discourse Contributed to the Capitol Riot
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Dan Rodricks 
Ah, the blame game continues, doesn’t it? Some folks just can’t resist pinning everything on President Trump. According to this narrative, Trump’s mere presence in politics caused a surge in hate crimes. But is it really that simple? Correlation doesn’t equal causation, and it’s a bit of a stretch to put all the blame on Trump for incidents that have various factors at play. It’s time for a more nuanced and thoughtful discussion beyond virtue signaling tweets
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It’s not his “mere presence,” and you know it. It’s his words. You know it and don’t acknowledge it. If you want “nuance,” follow the links to the studies I took the trouble to read overnight. Go ahead. I dare you.
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Rosalie, I follow a blog of my favorite Baltimore Sun newspaper columnist, Dan Rodricks, and like his plain-spoken style. Here’s one that hits the mark right on.
I was late in registering for tomorrow’s important event, as it’s not only hard to give up my Sunday activities, but there’s a Ravens football game at 1 pm, so my neighborhood (I’m 3 blocks from the stadium) is solid with cars when I try to get out of town. But I am on with you and eager to be part of the Kristallnacht commemoration and the OBO book introduction. Yay. See you tomorrow, Uta
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Hi Joyce, So good to be on the phone with you yesterday. Such full lives we have. You don’t need more statistics, but I love the direct way my favorite Baltimore Sun columnist, Dan Rodricks, has of getting information out on his blog and in the paper.
I’m on with Rosalie Gerut and other One-by-One folks tomorrow morning for a Kristallnacht commemoration and the introduction of the OBO book that is coming out this month.
Take good care of yourself. Bob too. Uta
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Who are you addressing here?
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Spot on, Dan. Every time ex-President Trump opens his mouth it is to speak angrily and hatefully about someone or something. Whether it is attacking the judicial system or a specific judge or court employee, or attacking a politician whom he dislikes, his entire campaign platform is hate, hate, hate and anger. He is a vicious person. His attacks are personal, saying that person X is fat or ugly or stupid. He attacks war heroes, the disabled, and most everyone else, except the 30% of Americans who are his cult followers.
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When leadership language jumps off the pedestal of common decency permissions are granted for followers to foment.
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“October 16, from the Associated Press: Doubling down on the hard-line immigration policies that have long animated his base, former President Donald Trump vowed to bar refugees from Gaza …”
So have Egypt, Jordan and the other 50-some Arab countries.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/10/18/egypt-does-not-see-why-it-should-be-responsible-for-gazas-refugee-influx.html
As you know from long years in a newsroom, crime statistics and studies can and have been manipulated. “Hate crimes” especially. The FBI’s leadership has demonstrated it shares your disdain for El Trumpo, so a grain of salt should be taken with their stats.
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Right. I’m sure you’d be saying the same thing about statistics associated with Biden — that they’ve been manipulated to put him in a good light. I hope you’re having a blissful autumn in the State of Denial. (By the way, I think it’s grand that you think Trump’s idea of U.S. refugee policy is no better than the policies of Arab states. Totally grand.)
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I will note also that Trump is not the only person who buys into anti-Israel tropes. Not just Republicans. Congresswoman Tlaib was elected by US Citizens. She flies a Palestinian flag outside her congressional office. https://www.newsweek.com/rashida-tlaib-palestine-flag-office-hamas-ban-1833320
I checked. She was elected by US citizens to be part of the US Congress. She has a Detroit flag and a Michigan flag outside her office also. But no US Flag.
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So if Trump somehow wins the election what can we do. The average person has no control over how things are run once the vote is in.
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